Ah, Groundhog Day—that annual spectacle where every February 2,
we wait with bated breath to hear the alleged forecast from a
rodent on whether or not spring will arrive early. If the
groundhog sees its shadow, that's supposed to mean six more
weeks of winter, but if it doesn't, it means an early spring. If
you don't have a local groundhog, you can always rely upon
Punxsutawney Phil down in central Pennsylvania, alleged to have
been alive for over a century through magic elixirs and claiming
100% accuracy in a nauseating display of kayfabe that requires
an extreme level of suspended disbelief.
...and indeed, it's all bunk. First of all, in Punxsutawney
Phil's case, the alleged groundhog's predictions, more often
than not, don't even match the actual weather conditions on
Groundhog Day. The Stormfax Almanac has tracked the conditions
for the past 20 years at Punxsutawney and found that, in a
shocking two-thirds of cases, the groundhog officially saw his
shadow despite it being overcast, rainy or snowy. In fact,
Phil's “Inner Circle” decides what he's going to see
beforehand... and they're not saying how they do it.
But even so, and we actually assume that the groundhog is
seeing or not seeing its shadow based on actual conditions (as
is usually the case with most other prognosticating groundhogs),
most groundhogs are actually wrong more often than they are
right. Whereas even random chance would give most groundhogs a
50/50 chance at an accurate forecast (which is what you'll
likely get from your Farmer's Almanac and its glorified
horoscope), most objective measurements, as far as they can be
discerned given the vagueness of it all, have estimated
groundhogs as having somewhere between 25% and 45% accuracy,
depending on the groundhog and the standard. In other words,
you're more likely to get an accurate picture of the weather for
February and March by following the opposite prediction
of the groundhog! But how?
Well, consider. When do most areas have the most sunshine?
Spring and summer! There's a number of reasons for this, but in
general, most places have cloudier skies during the winter
months. So, if we were to randomly pick a day during the winter
and do what meteorologists like to call “forecast persistence”
(that is, assume the weather isn't going to change much), it
would in fact indicate an early spring if a shadow is seen and a
longer winter if there is no shadow, since the conditions that
cause sunny skies are more likely to happen on any given day
(such as February 2) during a warmer pattern than a colder, more
wintry one.
It's still not a perfect forecast (“reversing the polarity” still only gets to between 55% and 75%), since weather systems can and do change a lot in a six-week span, but it does serve as enough proof that groundhog lore is indeed bunk. Hence the title of this page: “Groundhogs make lousy meteorologists.”
Sorry to burst your bubble. Signed, a meteorologist
Anyway, here's a list of predictions from 2019's and 2020's
cadre of woodchucks, for entertainment purposes only. This is
inspired by a
list previously maintained at Wikipedia before they
decided two years ago that the list wasn't worth keeping.
For the record, puppets, taxidermed specimens, non-rodent
creatures, and stuffed animals don't count, as they cannot
physically see. (It has come to my attention that Octoraro
Orphie may at this point be stuffed. I am still counting him
solely because he once was a live groundhog with a history
almost as long as the one in Punxsutawney. Likewise, it also
appears that most of the other Pennsylvania ceremonies except
Phil have gone to stuffed specimens, as have a lot of the
others. However, because they were at least at some time when I
started tracking these things real animals, I have continued
recording the predictions for posterity.)
This list was last updated at 7:00 p.m. February 2, 2026.
State |
Municipality |
Groundhog |
2019 |
2020 |
2024
|
2025 |
2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NY |
New York City |
Staten Island Chuck |
No shadow |
No shadow |
No shadow ▰ | No shadow |
Shadow |
| NY |
Holtsville |
Holtsville Hal |
No shadow |
No shadow |
No shadow ▰ |
Shadow |
Shadow▰ |
| NY |
Malverne |
Malverne Mel |
No shadow |
No shadow |
No shadow ▰ |
Shadow |
Shadow |
| NY |
Dunkirk |
Dunkirk Dave |
No shadow |
No shadow |
No shadow ▰ |
No shadow |
No shadow |
| PA |
Punxsutawney |
Punxsutawney Phil |
No shadow |
No shadow |
No shadow ▰ |
Shadow |
Shadow |
| PA |
Reading |
Patty Pagoda |
No shadow |
Shadow |
No shadow ▰ |
Shadow |
Shadow▰ |
| PA |
Quarryville |
Octoraro Orphie |
Shadow |
Shadow |
Shadow ▰ |
No shadow |
No shadow |
| PA |
Lawrenceville |
Lawrenceville Lucy |
No shadow |
--- |
No shadow ▰ |
Shadow |
Mixed |
| PA |
Myerstown |
Uni |
Shadow |
Shadow |
No shadow ▰ | Shadow |
Shadow |
| PA |
York |
Poor Richard |
Shadow |
No shadow |
No shadow ▰ |
Shadow |
Shadow▰ |
| PA |
Mount Joy |
Mount Joy Minnie |
Shadow |
Shadow |
No shadow ▰ | Shadow |
No shadow |
| PA |
Columbia |
Poppy / Elliot |
--- |
No shadow |
Shadow |
||
| NJ |
Milltown |
Milltown Mel |
Shadow |
No shadow |
Deceased |
||
| MD |
Cumberland |
Western Maryland Murray Queen City Charlie |
Shadow | No shadow |
Shadow▰ | ||
| WV |
French Creek |
French Creek Freddie |
Shadow |
No shadow |
No shadow |
Shadow▰ | |
| OH |
Marion |
Buckeye Chuck |
No shadow |
No shadow |
No shadow |
No shadow▰ | |
| MI |
Howell |
Woody |
No shadow |
Shadow |
No shadow |
Shadow▰ | |
| CT |
Manchester |
Chuckles |
No shadow |
No shadow |
No shadow |
Shadow▰ | |
| NC |
Chimney Rock |
Greta / Tater |
Shadow |
--- |
No shadow |
||
| NC |
Raleigh |
Sir Walter Wally |
Shadow |
Shadow |
Retired |
||
| NC |
Charlotte |
Queen Charlotte |
Shadow |
No shadow |
Deceased |
||
| GA |
Snellville/Lilburn |
General Beauregard Lee |
Shadow |
Shadow |
No shadow |
Shadow |
Shadow▰ |
| GA |
White County |
Yonah |
--- | No shadow |
No shadow▰ | ||
| AL |
Graysville |
Smith Lake Jake |
Shadow |
--- |
|||
| AL |
Birmingham |
Birmingham Bill / Jill |
Shadow |
--- |
No shadow |
Shadow▰ | |
| LA |
New Iberia |
Pierre C. Shadeaux |
Shadow |
No shadow |
Retired |
||
| IL |
Woodstock |
Woodstock Willie |
No shadow |
Shadow |
No shadow |
No shadow▰ | |
| WI |
Sun Prairie |
Jimmy |
No shadow |
Shadow |
No shadow |
No shadow▰ | |
| NS |
Shubenacadie |
Shubenacadie Sam |
Shadow |
Shadow |
Shadow |
No shadow▰ | |
| QC |
Val-d'Espoir |
Fred the Marmot |
Shadow |
No shadow |
Shadow |
No shadow▰ | |
| ON |
Wiarton |
Wiarton Willie |
No shadow |
No shadow |
No shadow |
No shadow▰ | |
| MB |
Winnipeg |
Manitoba Merv |
--- |
No shadow |
No shadow |
Shadow▰ | |
| MB |
Winnipeg |
Winnipeg Wynn |
--- |
No shadow |
Deceased |
||
| AB |
Balzac |
Balzac Billy |
No shadow |
No shadow |
No shadow |
Shadow▰ | |