Ah, Groundhog Day—that annual spectacle where every February 2, we wait
with bated breath to hear the alleged forecast from a rodent on whether
or not spring will arrive early. If the groundhog sees its shadow,
that's supposed to mean six more weeks of winter, but if it doesn't, it
means an early spring. If you don't have a local groundhog, you can
always rely upon Punxsutawney Phil down in central Pennsylvania, alleged
to have been alive for over a century through magic elixirs and claiming
100% accuracy in a nauseating display of kayfabe that requires an
extreme level of suspended disbelief.
...and indeed, it's all bunk. First of all, in Punxsutawney Phil's
case, the alleged groundhog's predictions, more often than not, don't
even match the actual weather conditions on Groundhog Day. The Stormfax
Almanac has tracked the conditions for the past 20 years at Punxsutawney
and found that, in a shocking two-thirds of cases, the groundhog
officially saw his shadow despite it being overcast, rainy or snowy. In
fact, Phil's “Inner Circle” decides what he's going to see beforehand...
and they're not saying how they do it.
But even so, and we actually assume that the groundhog is seeing or not
seeing its shadow based on actual conditions (as is usually the case
with most other prognosticating groundhogs), most groundhogs are
actually wrong more often than they are right. Whereas even random
chance would give most groundhogs a 50/50 chance at an accurate forecast
(which is what you'll likely get from your Farmer's Almanac and its
glorified horoscope), most objective measurements, as far as they can be
discerned given the vagueness of it all, have estimated groundhogs as
having somewhere between 25% and 45% accuracy, depending on the
groundhog and the standard. In other words, you're more likely to get an
accurate picture of the weather for February and March by following the
opposite prediction of the groundhog! But how?
Well, consider. When do most areas have the most sunshine? Spring and
summer! There's a number of reasons for this, but in general, most
places have cloudier skies during the winter months. So, if we were to
randomly pick a day during the winter and do what meteorologists like to
call “forecast persistence” (that is, assume the weather isn't going to
change much), it would in fact indicate an early spring if a shadow is
seen and a longer winter if there is no shadow, since the conditions
that cause sunny skies are more likely to happen on any given day (such
as February 2) during a warmer pattern than a colder, more wintry one.
It's still not a perfect forecast (“reversing the polarity” still only gets to between 55% and 75%), since weather systems can and do change a lot in a six-week span, but it does serve as enough proof that groundhog lore is indeed bunk. Hence the title of this page: “Groundhogs make lousy meteorologists.”
Sorry to burst your bubble. Signed, a meteorologist
Anyway, here's a list of predictions from 2019's and 2020's cadre of
woodchucks, for entertainment purposes only. This is inspired by a
list previously maintained at Wikipedia before they decided two
years ago that the list wasn't worth keeping.
For the record, puppets and stuffed animals don't count, as they cannot
physically see. (It has come to my attention that Octoraro Orphie may at
this point be stuffed. I am still counting him solely because he once
was a live groundhog with a history almost as long as the one in
Punxsutawney.)
This list was last updated at 1 p.m. February 2, 2020.
State |
Municipality |
Groundhog |
2019 |
2020 |
2024
|
2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NY |
New York City |
Staten Island Chuck |
No shadow |
No shadow |
No shadow ▰ | No shadow |
| NY |
Holtsville |
Holtsville Hal |
No shadow |
No shadow |
No shadow ▰ |
Shadow |
| NY |
Malverne |
Malverne Mel |
No shadow |
No shadow |
No shadow ▰ |
Shadow |
| NY |
Dunkirk |
Dunkirk Dave |
No shadow |
No shadow |
No shadow ▰ |
No shadow |
| PA |
Punxsutawney |
Punxsutawney Phil |
No shadow |
No shadow |
No shadow ▰ |
Shadow |
| PA |
Reading |
Patty Pagoda |
No shadow |
Shadow |
No shadow ▰ |
Shadow |
| PA |
Quarryville |
Octoraro Orphie |
Shadow |
Shadow |
Shadow ▰ |
No shadow |
| PA |
Lawrenceville |
Lawrenceville Lucy |
No shadow |
--- |
No shadow ▰ |
Shadow |
| PA |
Myerstown |
Uni |
Shadow |
Shadow |
No shadow ▰ | Shadow |
| PA |
York |
Poor Richard |
Shadow |
No shadow |
No shadow ▰ | Shadow |
| PA |
Mount Joy |
Mount Joy Minnie |
Shadow |
Shadow |
No shadow ▰ | Shadow |
| PA |
Columbia |
Poppy / Elliot |
--- |
No shadow |
Shadow |
|
| NJ |
Milltown |
Milltown Mel |
Shadow |
No shadow |
Deceased |
|
| MD |
Cumberland |
Western Maryland Murray Queen City Charlie |
Shadow | No shadow |
||
| WV |
French Creek |
French Creek Freddie |
Shadow |
No shadow |
No shadow |
|
| OH |
Marion |
Buckeye Chuck |
No shadow |
No shadow |
No shadow |
|
| MI |
Howell |
Woody |
No shadow |
Shadow |
No shadow |
|
| CT |
Manchester |
Chuckles |
No shadow |
No shadow |
No shadow |
|
| NC |
Chimney Rock |
Greta / Tater |
Shadow |
--- |
No shadow |
|
| NC |
Raleigh |
Sir Walter Wally |
Shadow |
Shadow |
Retired |
|
| NC |
Charlotte |
Queen Charlotte |
Shadow |
No shadow |
Deceased |
|
| GA |
Snellville/Lilburn |
General Beauregard Lee |
Shadow |
Shadow |
No shadow |
Shadow |
| GA |
White County |
Yonah |
--- | No shadow |
||
| AL |
Graysville |
Smith Lake Jake |
Shadow |
--- |
||
| AL |
Birmingham |
Birmingham Bill (& surrogates) |
Shadow |
--- |
No shadow |
|
| LA |
New Iberia |
Pierre C. Shadeaux |
Shadow |
No shadow |
Retired |
|
| IL |
Woodstock |
Woodstock Willie |
No shadow |
Shadow |
No shadow |
|
| WI |
Sun Prairie |
Jimmy |
No shadow |
Shadow |
No shadow |
|
| NS |
Shubenacadie |
Shubenacadie Sam |
Shadow |
Shadow |
Shadow |
|
| QC |
Val-d'Espoir |
Fred the Marmot |
Shadow |
No shadow |
Shadow |
|
| ON |
Wiarton |
Wiarton Willie |
No shadow |
No shadow |
No shadow |
|
| MB |
Winnipeg |
Manitoba Merv |
--- |
No shadow |
No shadow |
|
| MB |
Winnipeg |
Winnipeg Wynn |
--- |
No shadow |
Deceased |
|
| AB |
Balzac |
Balzac Billy |
No shadow |
No shadow |
No shadow |
|