Fullervision Weather Forecast

Cattaraugus County/Little Valley, NY: Valid Friday, November 20, 2015 3 p.m.

Friday 11.20
Saturday 11.21
Sunday 11.22
Monday 11.23
Tuesday 11.24
Wednesday 11.25
Thanksgiving 11.26
Friday 11.27
Saturday 11.28
Sunday 11.29


A cold front currently still developing and moving across the midwest will reach the region late Saturday night. Not much precipitation is associated with it (it will likely begin as rain or mixed precipitation when it arrives); the main concern is that it is much colder than it has been, and that conditions will be ideal for a lake-effect snow band to develop over the area for Sunday. This could be a fairly long-lasting lake band; it will persist for at least two days and possibly longer. With that kind of longevity, and a strong temperature contrast over the lake, several inches of snow are likely over the course of Sunday and Monday.

High pressure will, VERY SLOWLY, build into the northeast over the course of next week. As that happens, temperatures will begin to rise, the lake band will break down and skies will clear. Thanksgiving is looking quite pleasant at this point, with sunny skies and mild temperatures.

Another low pressure system is forecast to arrive next weekend, currently forecast to be late Black Friday. The warm sector will arrive first, bringing moderate rain, followed by a more modest cold front afterward, which will bring brief snow. The forecast models do not suggest conditions will be particularly good for another lake-effect snowstorm immediately after that, but they seem to disagree greatly after that.

Please see http://www.facebook.com/littlevalleyny or https://twitter.com/fullerwx for weekly summary forecasts. Updates on the situation will be posted in those places.

Frost derby note

I'm not doing the formal Frost Derby as I have usually done in years past, only because it has become noticeable that there are quite a few gaps in the meteorological record for Little Valley that make any comparison unreliable. Based on the Red House and Franklinville data, we're well behind schedule for our first frost by at least three weeks, which has extended the growing season, which has helped compensate for the somewhat late start earlier this year.


High: 45→40; Low: 29→26

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