Cattaraugus County/Little Valley, NY: Valid Friday, November 20,
2015 3 p.m.
A cold front currently still developing and moving across the
midwest will reach the region late Saturday night. Not much
precipitation is associated with it (it will likely begin as rain
or mixed precipitation when it arrives); the main concern is that
it is much colder than it has been, and that conditions will be
ideal for a lake-effect snow band to develop over the area for
Sunday. This could be a fairly long-lasting lake band; it will
persist for at least two days and possibly longer. With that kind
of longevity, and a strong temperature contrast over the lake,
several inches of snow are likely over the course of Sunday and
High pressure will, VERY SLOWLY, build into the northeast over the
course of next week. As that happens, temperatures will begin to
rise, the lake band will break down and skies will clear.
Thanksgiving is looking quite pleasant at this point, with sunny
skies and mild temperatures.
Another low pressure system is forecast to arrive next weekend,
currently forecast to be late Black Friday. The warm sector will
arrive first, bringing moderate rain, followed by a more modest
cold front afterward, which will bring brief snow. The forecast
models do not suggest conditions will be particularly good for
another lake-effect snowstorm immediately after that, but they
seem to disagree greatly after that.
Please see http://www.facebook.com/littlevalleyny
for weekly summary forecasts. Updates on the situation will be
posted in those places.
Frost derby note
I'm not doing the formal Frost Derby as I have usually done in
years past, only because it has become noticeable that there are
quite a few gaps in the meteorological record for Little Valley
that make any comparison unreliable. Based on the Red House and
Franklinville data, we're well behind schedule for our first
frost by at least three weeks, which has extended the growing
season, which has helped compensate for the somewhat late start
earlier this year.
High: 45→40; Low: 29→26