Fullervision Weather Forecast

Cattaraugus County/Little Valley, NY: Valid Saturday, February 28, 2015 12 noon

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Saturday 2.28
20
Sunday 3.1
15:30
Monday 3.2
22↓
Tuesday 3.3
5:35
Wednesday 3.4
30↓
Thursday 3.5
12:20
Friday 3.6
8:28
Saturday 3.7
15:32
Sunday 3.8
20:40
Monday 3.9
25:45

Synopsis:

Well, folks, after three weeks or so of “Holy (expletive), it’s cold!” we are about to enter a period of “It’s still cold, but not quite so bad.” As I noted in last week’s discussion, we are getting more sunlight, and that means the bitter cold cannot last. High temperatures throughout this week will hover between the 2os at their lowest, and mid-30s at their peak midweek. There is, nevertheless, a catch: the mid-30s are associated with rain (yes, RAIN) that will arrive in the area late Tuesday. Now, temperatures at this point appear to be marginal for rain, and some models are even maintaining below freezing, but most of the models are consistently showing enough warmth in the lower atmosphere to maintain all liquid precipitation. The good news is that this will work wonders to knock down the massive snowpack that has built up after two months without a thaw; the bad news is that, with the surface still being cold, it could very well lead to a very slick and icy Wednesday morning, with freezing rain posing a threat.

In terms of other precipitation, there is light (maybe moderate at worst) snow in the forecast for Sunday and next Friday or Saturday. Conditions should otherwise be mostly sunny.

Now, the really good news: IF (and this is a big IF) the Canadian model verifies on this, next weekend and the early part of the following week will have a very noticeable warm-up. If their solution verifies, we could see temperatures pushing the 50 degree mark, and given the history of this time of year, it is wholly within the realm of plausibility. The American model is more pessimistic on this and the European is in the middle, but I think a lot will depend on how much of the snowpack the Tuesday night rainstorm wipes out: the less snow on the ground come next week, the warmer it will get. Cross your fingers.


Please see http://www.facebook.com/littlevalleyny or https://twitter.com/fullerwx for weekly summary forecasts. Updates on the situation will be posted in those places.

Normals:

High: 36→40; Low: 15→19


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