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Catharine Young going north?
Recent moves highlight possible run for North Country congressional seat

State Senator Catharine Young (R-Olean) appears to be setting herself up for a run for Congress-- but possibly not where you'd expect.

With the pending appointment of North Country Republican Rep. John McHugh (R-Pierrepont Manor) to become U.S. Secretary of the Army under President Barack Obama, the seat representing the 23rd congressional district, a broad-stretching district ranging across Northern New York from Oswego through Plattsburgh, will face a special election. Young may be a surprising dark horse for the Republicans to run for that seat.

Traditionally, Senator Young has funneled press releases through local media outlets in the western Southern Tier, most commonly the Dunkirk Observer (Young is an alumnus of SUNY Fredonia, which is within a few miles of the Observer's headquarters). Recently, however, her press releases have also been cross-posted at a site called newzjunky.com, which is based in Watertown, New York (within the 23rd district). The press releases mainly comprise criticism of state senate agriculture chairperson Darrel Aubertine (D-Cape Vincent), who succeeded Young as chair of that committee when Democrats took over the state senate in January 2009, and just so happens to be the leading Democrat contender (and possible favorite overall) to run for McHugh's old seat. These press releases have even drawn the attention of Jefferson County Democrats, who recently offered their own rebuttal to one of Young's press releases. Why is Young drawing all of this attention in the North Country?

Well, for starters, the North Country Republicans have largely been resting on their laurels, and it shows. After state senator Jim Wright's retirement, the party was unprepared and considered their district safe for whatever candidate they chose to replace him. Unfortunately for them, then-Assemblyman Aubertine upset Will Barclay in the special election following Wright, and won re-election in 2008 over Dave Renzi; Aubertine is the only rural Democrat in the state Senate. The North Country has not developed many quality candidates in their stable, assemblywoman Dierdre Scozzafava and state senator Joseph Griffo notwithstanding, and it's so bad that they're considering Robert Taub, McHugh's chief of staff, for a potential candidacy.

Contrast this with the Southern Tier, where the party has built an extensive good-old-boys-and-girls network of strong candidates. They were prepared and ready to fight when Randy Kuhl, a veteran congressman and former state senator from Hammondsport, faced a challenge to his congressional seat from nationally-backed Democrat Eric Massa. The two fought tooth and nail in two straight elections. Kuhl won the first, Massa the second. Given the current political climate, Kuhl could probably come back and retake the seat with enough effort, though he has not made any indication that he will. Instead, there are a whole list of other names that have cropped up: state senator George Winner, Monroe County Executive Maggie Brooks, Corning mayor Tom Reed, Chemung County Executive Tom Santulli, talk show host Bill Nojay, and Young.

This, of course, leads to the question: Why would Young want to run in a district that isn't her own, when she has an opportunity to run in her own district? The simple answer is risk. In order to run against Eric Massa in 2010, she would have to forego running for her own state senate seat. Young, though a fierce competitor, has never faced such a contentious election, and there is a chance that she could lose and be out of a job altogether if she ran against Massa, something she is probably unwilling to face. By running in a special election for the 23rd district, she does not compromise the Republicans' chances in the 29th, nor does she have to give up her seat (see, for instance, James Tedisco, who ran for Congress in the 20th district earlier this year while still holding his Assembly seat; Tedisco also ran from outside his congressional district), and can run again for her state senate seat in 2010, where she continues to enjoy overwhelming popularity. If she happens to win the Congressional seat, Republicans have several names to replace her in the state senate, such as assemblyman Joseph Giglio and Cattaraugus County legislature chairwoman Crystal Abers, whereas the Democrats have a weaker and more reluctant stable of candidates. Furthermore, if she loses now, she risks very little political capital in doing so. In short, it's much safer to run now than it is to run later.

Aubertine, of course, is no lock to run for Congress. There are Democrats concerned that Aubertine's departure would give the Republicans an opportunity to gain a crucial seat in the state senate, and may pressure him not to run. There's also some rumors floating around that the Republicans may let him run unopposed, just to get him out of the Senate. If Aubertine doesn't run, it's highly unlikely Young carpetbags north.

If he does run, though, the battle lines have been drawn, and if Young has the clout as a Southern Tier state senator to draw the attention of the North Country political engine, then don't rule this seemingly far-fetched idea out just yet.